AI job losses are concentrated among workers aged 22 to 25, Stanford payroll study finds

Stanford University researchers working with payroll processor ADP analyzed employment data through June 2026 and found no broad AI-driven job destruction across the economy - but a sharp gap at the entry level. Employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in occupations highly exposed to AI fell about 11% from late 2022, while the same age group in less-exposed occupations grew about 10%. By June, employment levels for the exposed group were about 19% below their peers in less-exposed roles. Older, more experienced workers showed no comparable gap, which the researchers attribute to AI automating the routine tasks that junior staff are hired to do while experienced workers use the same tools to augment work they already own. The article, by Computerworld senior reporter Agam Shah, sets the finding alongside MIT's Project Iceberg. The signal for workers is narrow but real: the damage so far is not economy-wide, it is on the first rung of the ladder.