How many jobs has AI actually cut? Morningstar puts it at a few hundred thousand, or 0.1% of US employment

Morningstar senior US economist Preston Caldwell estimates AI has subtracted no more than a few hundred thousand American jobs so far, around 0.1% of total US employment. White-collar services employment - finance, IT services, professional services and corporate offices - has fallen about 0.4% a year since 2024, and measured against its 2017-19 trend the shortfall is roughly 0.4 percentage points, or about 600,000 jobs. Caldwell calls even that an overestimate, arguing most of the decline since the 2023 peak corrects the overstaffing built up in 2020-22 rather than reflecting automation, and notes the declines never accelerated through 2025 and 2026 as adoption and AI agents spread. Unemployment has averaged 4.1% over three months, down from a 4.5% peak. One indicator points the other way: unemployment among 23-to-25-year-olds with a bachelor's degree or higher now sits near 6%, against 3.6% in 2019, a step up Caldwell calls plausibly AI-driven.