Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs says AI could displace up to 9% of workers, and the job losses will likely wait for a recession

AI could displace up to 9% of workers in the US and other developed economies, roughly one in 11, Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs wrote in a note published on 22 October 2026, with slower hiring weighing on employment by another 3%. The estimate rests on Goldman's forecast that AI eventually lifts productivity by 15%. Briggs's main finding is about timing. Looking back over decades of data, he found that "automation-related labor disruption is limited when the overall economy is healthy but accelerates during cyclical slowdowns", with companies tending "to automate work and shed labor costs when the economy starts to slow." The share of Americans in routine jobs held steady in expansions and fell in steps during the recessions of the early 1980s, 2001, 2008 and 2020, without climbing back. "A more concerning takeaway from our analysis is that a cyclical slowdown would likely accelerate AI-related automation and job losses, thereby amplifying the broader business cycle," he wrote. For now he sees the gauge reading low: AI-attributed layoffs in Challenger's tracking have pulled back from their spring peak, and only 23% of US establishments have built AI into regular workflows. "Given that the overall economy and labor market have remained resilient in 2026, companies may have had less incentive to focus on aggressively cutting labor costs," he wrote. Briggs co-leads Goldman's global economics team. In June he described the same 9% as workers who would be "reallocated to new positions"; this note calls them displaced.